The only forecaster whose track record can’t be rewritten.

Every Called It Daily prediction is hashed, AIP-signed, and broadcast on BSV before publication. The plaintext is revealed on-chain 72 hours later, timestamped and author-bound. Subscribers see calls the moment they’re committed.

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  • OpenAI GPT-5 benchmark supremacy

    OpenAI's GPT-5 (or its next flagship model released by end of Q3 2026) will NOT hold the #1 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by 2026-10-01, having been surpassed by a non-OpenAI model.

    revealed
    Confidence
    62%
    Resolves
    2026-10-01
    Criteria
    On 2026-10-01, check the publicly visible LMSYS Chatbot Arena overall Elo leaderboard. If the top-ranked model is from any organization other than OpenAI, the prediction resolves YES. If an OpenAI model holds #1, it resolves NO.
    sha256 8ac4915cb74e1737a2294e106ec5c84f5163c67ebc726928badfcad039dca17e
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • Anthropic Claude 4 context window

    Anthropic will release a Claude model before 2026-11-01 with a publicly advertised context window of at least 2 million tokens in its standard API offering.

    revealed
    Confidence
    58%
    Resolves
    2026-10-31
    Criteria
    Anthropic's official API documentation or a formal press release dated on or before 2026-10-31 lists a Claude model available to paying API customers with a context window of ≥2,000,000 tokens as a standard (non-research, non-waitlist) feature.
    sha256 04a7c45842ab6ec7162cab2283aa286405da711ff2499d1f615966a7362a7fcb
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • OpenAI GPT-5 benchmark dominance

    OpenAI's GPT-5 (or its next flagship model released in 2026) will NOT hold the top position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of August 2026, having been surpassed by at least one competitor model.

    revealed
    Confidence
    62%
    Resolves
    2026-08-31
    Criteria
    On 2026-08-31, the LMSYS Chatbot Arena overall Elo leaderboard shows a model NOT from OpenAI ranked #1. If LMSYS has rebranded or replaced this leaderboard, the equivalent widely-cited human-preference ranking is used.
    sha256 8c196bf737ec89b4bca306d9f8e8a71f2ce5d3c1082e36e920aa649ced83e4bd
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • Nvidia GPU market share vs AMD

    AMD's MI400-series AI accelerators will capture less than 8% of the datacenter GPU revenue market share in Q2 2026, despite aggressive marketing claims.

    revealed
    Confidence
    72%
    Resolves
    2026-08-15
    Criteria
    AMD's Q2 2026 earnings report (expected ~August 2026) shows datacenter GPU segment revenue implying less than 8% share relative to Nvidia's reported datacenter revenue for the same quarter, using publicly filed figures from both companies.
    sha256 4067f7f4e0220e31fb4212cfa297713365c209cb783f2e552398917b4585b34a
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • Bitcoin price correction

    Bitcoin will trade below $75,000 at least once before 2026-08-01, representing a greater than 30% drawdown from its 2026 all-time high.

    revealed
    Confidence
    42%
    Resolves
    2026-07-31
    Criteria
    Any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken) reports a BTC/USD spot price below $75,000 on any single day between 2026-05-18 and 2026-07-31, and BTC's 2026 intraday all-time high prior to that date was at or above $107,000.
    sha256 f8635f8615db7ee4f4baec4e1da2977c328600cde8d381b70e9f369c9ead1453
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • OpenAI GPT-5 benchmark dominance

    OpenAI's GPT-5 (or its next flagship model released in 2026) will NOT hold the #1 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of Q3 2026, displaced by a Chinese or open-source competitor.

    revealed
    Confidence
    58%
    Resolves
    2026-09-30
    Criteria
    On 2026-09-30, the LMSYS Chatbot Arena overall Elo leaderboard (chat.lmsys.org or its successor) shows a model NOT from OpenAI in the #1 ranked position.
    sha256 cd5a37905659469f49d6c8f3bf2f57f05a386956cba5febd5c1ab1aa1a4ebd03
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • NVIDIA quarterly revenue record

    NVIDIA will report quarterly revenue exceeding $45 billion USD in its fiscal Q2 2027 earnings (covering May–July 2026), setting a new company record.

    revealed
    Confidence
    68%
    Resolves
    2026-08-28
    Criteria
    NVIDIA's official earnings press release for fiscal Q2 2027 (expected late August 2026) reports total revenue strictly greater than $45 billion USD. Resolution based on the reported GAAP revenue figure in the official press release.
    sha256 3762c18cd7dfae391a91955c10a5a0aaa5e100ba49fa50c9c4726e09c27a4703
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • Bitcoin price above $150,000

    Bitcoin will NOT sustain a closing price above $150,000 USD on any single day before September 1, 2026, despite ongoing institutional inflows and ETF demand.

    revealed
    Confidence
    62%
    Resolves
    2026-08-31
    Criteria
    Bitcoin's daily closing price on Coinbase (UTC midnight) exceeds $150,000 on any calendar day between today (2026-05-17) and 2026-08-31. If no such close occurs, the prediction resolves TRUE (it did NOT breach $150k).
    sha256 8e07240409cc1138642c0c4f49ec1aba3c407fb69b2c0e4b85b3004ed34fb69f
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • Anthropic Claude 4 flagship model release

    Anthropic will release a model explicitly branded as 'Claude 4' (or equivalent next-generation flagship) by August 31, 2026, with documented performance exceeding Claude 3.5 Sonnet on at least three major public benchmarks.

    revealed
    Confidence
    72%
    Resolves
    2026-08-31
    Criteria
    Anthropic publishes an official blog post or model card announcing a Claude 4 or successor flagship model, and independent benchmark results (e.g., MMLU, HumanEval, GPQA) confirm it surpasses Claude 3.5 Sonnet scores on at least three of those benchmarks.
    sha256 7a864798e8ae08e52fa8d1444321205421872004bcecb080285cba19e028fd4e
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • Nvidia data center revenue growth deceleration

    Nvidia will report data center revenue growth of less than 40% year-over-year for at least one quarter reported before 2027-01-01, signaling a meaningful deceleration from its hypergrowth phase.

    revealed
    Confidence
    58%
    Resolves
    2026-12-31
    Criteria
    Nvidia's official earnings release (10-Q or earnings press release filed with the SEC) for any fiscal quarter with results published before 2027-01-01 shows Data Center segment revenue growth of less than 40% compared to the same quarter one year prior.
    sha256 53b8b8f76e22dab7191253dd0b868bc9f99a4bb8020278e09e96149a5825b283
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • Bitcoin price correction

    Bitcoin will trade below $75,000 at least once before 2026-08-15, representing a pullback of roughly 30%+ from its 2026 highs.

    revealed
    Confidence
    55%
    Resolves
    2026-08-15
    Criteria
    Any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken) records a BTC/USD spot price below $75,000 at any point between 2026-05-16 and 2026-08-15, as verifiable via public trading data or CoinGecko historical price records.
    sha256 462c2f11ee65f28b68667a2b7d2da57b0eecfa6f3ac8cf0c2095bb8952a4d28b
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • OpenAI GPT-5 benchmark dominance

    OpenAI's GPT-5 (or next flagship model) will NOT hold the #1 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by 2026-09-01, having been displaced by a competitor model.

    revealed
    Confidence
    62%
    Resolves
    2026-09-01
    Criteria
    On 2026-09-01, the LMSYS Chatbot Arena overall Elo leaderboard (chatbot arena lmsys.org) does not show an OpenAI model in the #1 ranked position. A Google DeepMind, Anthropic, or Chinese lab model holds the top spot instead.
    sha256 8286e3e891765f9ed1ca9161bf396f47b9a220de3e70390ec5076bd58714f762
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • Nvidia market cap relative to Apple

    Nvidia's market capitalization will surpass Apple's and remain higher for at least 30 consecutive calendar days before 2026-12-31.

    revealed
    Confidence
    55%
    Resolves
    2026-12-31
    Criteria
    Public market data (Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, or similar) shows Nvidia's market cap exceeding Apple's for 30 or more consecutive calendar days ending before 2026-12-31. Both companies must be publicly listed throughout the period.
    sha256 35be8d80dc1fcf4716a9ac3360a843d06c00050ed9349cd4faa33d412f0bad33
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • Bitcoin price correction

    Bitcoin will fall below $70,000 at least once before September 1, 2026, after having traded above $90,000 in early 2026.

    revealed
    Confidence
    58%
    Resolves
    2026-09-01
    Criteria
    Any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken) records a BTC/USD spot price at or below $70,000 on any single day between 2026-05-15 and 2026-09-01, as confirmed by public price data or CoinMarketCap.
    sha256 11e734aac9fdd356a0d86838cccf781615b25a3d45a9ccc56c00ed8020f0e24e
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9
  • OpenAI GPT-5 benchmark performance

    OpenAI's GPT-5 (or next flagship model released in 2026) will score above 90% on the MMLU benchmark, setting a new public state-of-the-art record at time of release.

    revealed
    Confidence
    72%
    Resolves
    2026-12-31
    Criteria
    OpenAI publishes an official technical report or blog post showing their latest flagship model scoring ≥90% on the standard 5-shot MMLU benchmark. Resolution YES if this is documented before 2026-12-31.
    sha256 f055bfbf5a2c78aea457d54549ea4277e744a441ed08fdf24854827ae8c64f1c
    signer 19QHPYgtYZftHhUwG7tf2gKf18xXS4kPj9